We analyze the impact of rating agencies' beliefs on credit markets. We measure their beliefs as the difference between their forecasts of aggregate credit spreads and the consensus. When rating agencies become more optimistic, they issue higher …

Rational expectations imply that the current long-term interest rate should already incorporate public knowledge of anticipated increases in short rates. Yet, there is a widespread misconception that expected future shifts in the short rate forecast …

I document a robust pattern in how Treasury market participants' yield curve expectations respond to new information: forecasts for short-term rates underreact to news while forecasts for long-term rates overreact. I propose a new explanation of this …